Ekonomi ve Finans Bölümü Koleksiyonu
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Browsing Ekonomi ve Finans Bölümü Koleksiyonu by All Authors "Canbay, Şerif"
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- ItemDynamics of Wheat Production In Early Republican Türkiye (1925–1960)(AVAZ Akademik Düşünce Derneği, 2025-05) Canbay, Şerif; Şengül, Serkan; 278780; 355807This study aims to analyze the socioeconomic and energy-based factors determining wheat production in Türkiye between 1925 and 1960 using econometric methodology. In the early Republican period, the agricultural sector was structured as one of the main axes of economic development, and wheat, as a strategic crop, was at the center of both production policies and support mechanisms. In this study, wheat production is explained by variables such as per capita income level, number of students enrolled in primary school, electricity production and crude oil price, and the ARDL bounds test approach is used in the model established with annual data. The findings reveal that electricity generation and economic growth support production in the long run, whereas the education indicator has a limiting effect on production. The lagged effects of oil prices, on the other hand, indicate that cost pressures have negative effects on production over time. Short-run analyses reveal that the effects of variables vary over time and that production decisions are affected not only by technical but also by structural transformation processes. The study provides a historical data-based contribution to explain the multidimensional structure of agricultural production in the first 35 years of the Republic.
- ItemEconomic and Social Determinants of Regional Entrepreneurship: Evidence From Turkiye(Cukurova University, 2026-01) Şengül, Serkan; Canbay, Şerif; Şener, Murat; 355807This study examines the long-term effects of economic and social factors affecting entrepreneurial activities across Türkiye’s NUTS1 regions between 2009 and 2022. Using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methodology, the relationships among regional GDP growth, income inequality, unemployment rates, public education expenditures and early school leaving rates are analyzed. The results show that GDP growth and income inequality have a positive impact on entrepreneurial activities, whereas unemployment rate and public education expenditures have negative effects. Early school leaving rate is found to have a limited but positive effect on entrepreneurship. It explicitly links entrepreneurship to broader socio-economic dimensions, highlighting how factors such as income inequality, education, and unemployment shape entrepreneurial dynamics across regions. The findings reveal that economic and social factors play a multidimensional role in shaping entrepreneurship dynamics. By incorporating regional disparities and linking entrepreneurship with broader socio-economic dimensions, the study aligns with international literature on entrepreneurship and economic development. It also provides practical recommendations for policymakers, such as developing strategies to promote income equality, strengthening regional financial support mechanisms, and integrating entrepreneurship education into the national curriculum to foster sustainable development. This comprehensive analysis offers both insight into Turkey’s regional entrepreneurship landscape and a framework for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth with social equity.
- ItemEconomic growth and fisheries biocapacity in BRICS+T: An Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis(Ege University, 2025-03) Canbay, Şerif; Şengül, Serkan; 278780; 355807This study evaluates the robustness of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by examining the association between economic growth and fisheries biocapacity in BRICS+T countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Türkiye. Panel bootstrap causality test is utilized to evaluate the causal relationship between the variables using data covering the period 1992-2022. The results show that the EKC hypothesis is held for Russia, South Africa and Türkiye and that economic growth initially causes to a decrease in fisheries biocapacity, but after a certain threshold, biocapacity recovers. In contrast, the EKC hypothesis is not supported for Brazil, China and India. These findings necessitate governments to take policy measures to promote environmental sustainability.
- ItemFrom capture to culture: the asymmetric impact of education on Türkiye's fisheries sector(Springer, 2025-08) Canbay, Şerif; Şengül, Serkan; Karahan Dursun, Pınar; 355807; 414023The aim of this study is to analyze the causal effect of the net schooling rate, as a proxy for human capital, on saltwater fisheries and aquaculture in five coastal regions of T & uuml;rkiye (Marmara, Aegean, Mediterranean, Western Black Sea, and Eastern Black Sea). In the empirical analysis, we use the panel data for the period 2009-2022 and employ the dependent variables that are the amount of fish production obtained through fishing in Model 1 and the amount of fish produced through aquaculture in Model 2. The study applies the panel bootstrap Granger causality method, considering both structural heterogeneities and cross-sectional dependencies. The results show that the effect of educational attainment on fish production activities varies both by type of production and by regional conditions. In the Mediterranean and Aegean regions, educational attainment has strong effects on both fishing and aquaculture, while in some regions, it has a negative effect on production. The study contributes to the literature by presenting the effects of education, a socio-economic variable, at the sectoral level in detail; it also provides an empirical basis for the development of region-specific sustainability policies.
- ItemGüneydoğu Asya Uluslar Birliği (ASEAN) Ekonomilerinde Finansal Gelişme ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi(Muhasebe ve Finansman Öğretim Üyeleri Bilim ve Araştırma Derneği, 2025-04) Canbay, Şerif; 278780Bu çalışma, Güneydoğu Asya Uluslar Birliği'nin Kurucu Beşlisi’ni oluşturan Endonezya, Malezya, Filipinler, Singapur ve Tayland’da doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve finansal gelişmişliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki nedensel ilişkisini incelemektedir. 1980-2021 dönemi için panel bootstrap nedensellik testi kullanılarak yapılan analiz, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve finansal gelişmişlik değişkenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin ülkeden ülkeye değiştiğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Endonezya’da doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilerken, finansal gelişmişlik ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahiptir. Malezya’da benzer şekilde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar büyümeyi teşvik ederken, finansal gelişmişliğin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif yönlüdür. Filipinler’de finansal gelişmişlik büyümeyi desteklerken, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların büyümeye olumsuz etkisi gözlemlenmiştir. Singapur ve Tayland’da hem doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar hem de finansal gelişmişlik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz etkiye sahiptir.
- ItemInternational integration and agricultural productivity in Kazakhstan: a Fourier ARDL approach(Emerald, 2025-11) Şengül, Serkan; Yıldız, Hakan; Canbay, Şerif; 355807Purpose – This study investigates the effects of Kazakhstan’s membership in international economic organizations such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on agricultural total factor productivity (AGTFP) during the period 1992–2022. It aims to understand how institutional integration, trade openness and environmental factors influence agricultural productivity in a transitioning economy. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis employs the fractional frequency Fourier ARDL (FFF-ARDL) method, which allows for modeling potential unknown nonlinear structural breaks. Annual data on AGTFP, agricultural GDP, foreign trade ratio and agricultural carbon emissions are analyzed. Dummy variables are used to capture Kazakhstan’s membership in each international organization and comparative models are estimated. Findings – The results reveal that EAEU membership has a positive and significant impact on AGTFP, while OTS membership shows a negative effect and SCO membership has no significant effect. Agricultural carbon emissions positively influence productivity in the long run but have a short-run limiting effect. Foreign trade openness limits long-run productivity, reflecting structural dependencies. Research limitations/implications – The study is limited to Kazakhstan and focuses on sector-level productivity; cross-country comparisons could provide further insights. Originality/value – This study offers a novel empirical investigation into the long-term effects of international institutional integration on agricultural productivity using advanced econometric modeling. By isolating the impacts of multiple international organizations, it contributes to the understanding of how trade and institutional dynamics shape agricultural performance in developing economies.
- ItemLogistics connectivity, foreign investments and trade relationships in ASEAN countries(Emerald, 2025-12) Canbay, Şerif; Karahan-Dursun, Pınar; Şengül, Serkan; 414023; 355807Purpose This study examines the causal relationships among the export volume index, the liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI) and foreign direct investment (FDI, net inflows as % of GDP) for the five founding members of ASEAN–Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand–during the 2006–2021 period. Design/methodology/approach The analysis applies the panel bootstrap causality test developed by Kónya (2006), which allows for country-specific inferences without requiring cross-sectional independence or parameter homogeneity. Three models are estimated to identify the direction and nature of causal linkages among the variables. Findings The results show evidence of Granger causality from LSCI and FDI to exports in the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, with positive estimated coefficients indicating that stronger maritime connectivity and investment inflows are associated with higher export performance. Causality also runs from exports to LSCI in Indonesia and the Philippines, suggesting that trade expansion stimulates infrastructure improvements. While FDI negatively affects LSCI in Indonesia, a positive coefficient is observed for the Philippines. In addition, LSCI Granger-causes FDI in the Philippines and Singapore, reflecting the role of maritime connectivity in attracting investment. These results highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in trade, logistics and investment dynamics. Research limitations/implications The analysis is limited to five ASEAN founding members and to the 2006–2021 period due to the availability of the LSCI data. Future research may extend the analysis to other ASEAN economies or incorporate additional macroeconomic factors. Practical implications The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance maritime infrastructure, attract FDI and strengthen regional trade integration through improved logistic connectivity. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by simultaneously examining the bidirectional and country-specific causal linkages among maritime connectivity, trade and investment using a robust panel bootstrap approach, offering new empirical evidence on the structural heterogeneity of ASEAN economies.
- ItemMint ülkelerinde tüketici fiyat endeksi ve cari işlemler dengesinin döviz kuru üzerindeki nedensellik etkisi(ISARC, 2025-05) Canbay, Şerif; Özdilek Kırca, Elveda; 278780; Çelik, Ahmet; Akhter, Naseem; Şen Elkoca, CandanBu çalışmada, 1990-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak MINT (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde tüketici fiyat endeksi (enflasyon) ve cari işlemler dengesinin döviz kuru üzerindeki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Analizde Kónya (2006) Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Endonezya, Meksika ve Nijerya için cari işlemler açığından döviz kuruna doğru negatif yönde anlamlı bir nedensellik saptanmıştır. Aynı ülkelerde enflasyon oranlarından döviz kuruna doğru pozitif yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi de gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, söz konusu ülkelerde hem dış dengesizliklerin hem de fiyat istikrarsızlıklarının döviz kuru dinamiklerini belirlemede etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık Türkiye için hem enflasyonun hem de cari işlemler dengesinin döviz kuru üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır.
- ItemRelationship between maritime transport and economic growth: highest maritime transport european countries(Ordu University, 2025-01) Canbay, Şerif; Kırca, Mustafa; 278780Maritime transport is one of the most widely used transport channels used by countries in foreign trade. The development of maritime transport affects the economic growth levels of countries. In addition, the increase in the level of economic growth of countries increases their share in international foreign trade and this situation increases the importance given by countries to maritime transport day by day. The identification of the effects of maritime transport in countries will provide important information on what countries should do against the shocks they will face in the future. In this context, the study aims to determine whether there is any causality relationship between maritime transport and economic growth variables in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom, which have the highest maritime transport among European countries. The bootstrap panel causality test was employed to examine the causality relationships between the variables over the time frame of 2008:Q1-2020:Q2. According to the findings, there is a causality relationship from economic growth to maritime transport in all countries except Italy and the Netherlands. There is a causality relationship from maritime transport to economic growth in Türkiye and the United Kingdom. As a result, the relationship between maritime transport and economic growth varies from country to country. This situation reveals the necessity of developing national policies for maritime transport by considering the economic structures of the countries. These findings suggest that countries need more efficient and sustainable maritime transport policies.
- ItemSpatial analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of crime: Evidence from regions of Türkiye(Elsevier, 2025-09) Şengül, Serkan; Canbay, Şerif; 355807This study investigates the macroeconomic and spatial determinants of crime rates in Türkiye by employing spatial panel data models. Using annual data from 12 NUTS-1 regions over the period 2009–2022, the analysis examines the effects of unemployment rate, income inequality (Gini coefficient), inflation rate, per capita income (GDP), public education expenditures, and urbanization on crime rates. Recognizing the spatial dependence structure of regional data, spatial error models are preferred over classical panel estimators. In addition to total crime, the study disaggregates crime data into two major categories—assault and theft—to assess the robustness of results and explore type-specific dynamics. The findings reveal that income inequality, per capita income, and inflation have positive and statistically significant effects on crime rates across all models. While public education expenditures do not exhibit a significant direct effect, their spatially lagged values show a negative and significant relationship with both total and disaggregated crime categories. The urbanization variable is found to reduce theft rates, although its effect on assault is weaker and not consistently significant. The unemployment rate does not appear to be a significant determinant in most specifications. These results highlight the importance of spatially informed, region-specific crime prevention strategies. In particular, the findings emphasize the relevance of interregional spillover effects of education policy and the differentiated impact of urbanization on distinct types of crime. The study contributes to the literature by offering both empirical and methodological advancements through the use of disaggregated crime data and spatial econometric techniques.
- ItemThe role of schooling in shaping the fishing footprint in Greece: evidence from an augmented ARDL approach(INIDEP, 2026-01) Karahan-Dursun, Pınar; Şengül, Serkan; Canbay, Şerif; 414023; 355807The fishing footprint, which reflects humanity’s demand on marine ecosystems and is closely linked to fisheries sustainability, serves as the main environmental indicator for marine resources. This study investigated the role of schooling as an indicator of human capital in shaping the fishing footprint in Greece over the period 1990-2022. The empirical analysis employed the Augmented ARDL (AARDL) approach, concentrating on the potential nonlinear relationship between human capital and environmental degradation in fishing grounds. The findings reveal the threshold effects of schooling: while lower levels of human capital increase environmental pressure, once a certain threshold is surpassed, human capital contributes to reducing environmental degradation in fisheries. Furthermore, the results validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypotheses in the context of fishing grounds.
- ItemTrump’ın yeniden seçilmesinin Dünya ve Türkiye ekonomisine olası yansımaları(MÜSİAD, 2024) Canbay, Şerif; Çelik, Ahmet Hüsrev; 278780; Gündoğdu, Emir Furkan“Trump ile gelecek çatışma ortamı, Türkiye için yeni ihracat kapılarının açılması bakımından bir fırsata dönüştürülebilir. Özellikle Çin’in pazar payını kaybettiği tekstil, elektronik, kimya ve otomotiv yan sanayi gibi sektörlerde Türkiye’nin bu sektörlere ait pazarlarda payını artırma potansiyeli mevcuttur. İşte tam da bu noktada Türkiye, bu çatışma ortamından bir fırsat yaratabilir mi?”
