Testing the Forecasting Power of Statistical Models for Intercity Rail Passenger Flows in Turkey

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dc.authorid0000-0001-8667-9787
dc.contributor.authorEkici, Üsame
dc.contributor.authorTüydeş Yaman, Hediye
dc.contributor.authorŞendil, Nuri
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-13T07:31:20Z
dc.date.available2025-03-13T07:31:20Z
dc.date.issued2024-11
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik, Mimarlık ve Tasarım Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği (İngilizce) Bölümü
dc.descriptionScience Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
dc.description.abstractWhile going through a major rail transformation, it is important to develop reliable estimation models for rail passenger flows (RPFs) in Turkey. There are two main approaches in RPF estimation, regressions and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) models, both of which were in this study developed using the daily RPF data for the period 2011–2015. The ARIMA models (with some variations) were used to forecast first the daily flows in 2016, during which travel restrictions for summer resulted in reduced volumes, successfully captured in the updated ARIMA model. The regression models predicted the expected demand during the restrictions, enabling evaluation of the impact of restrictions, which also showed the models’ power over the longer term. The forecasts were extended to 2017, 2018, and 2019 data. The regression results produced more reliable forecasts over the long term, whereas more accurate predictions were obtained by ARIMA-Sliding (FA-Sld) for short-term planning purposes.
dc.identifier.citationEkici, Ü., Tüydes-Yaman, H., & Şendil, N. (2024). Testing the Forecasting Power of Statistical Models for Intercity Rail Passenger Flows in Turkey. Transportation Research Record, 2678(11), 864-880. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981241242353
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/03611981241242353
dc.identifier.eissn2169-4052
dc.identifier.endpage880
dc.identifier.issn0361-1981
dc.identifier.issue11
dc.identifier.startpage864
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.mudanya.edu.tr/handle/20.500.14362/296
dc.identifier.volume2678
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001214584700001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.institutionauthorŞendil, Nuri
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSage
dc.relation.journalTransportation Research Record
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale- Ulusal-Hakemli Dergi- Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjecttime series analysis
dc.subjectrailway transportation
dc.subjectdemand forecasting
dc.subjectpassenger flow
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectregression
dc.titleTesting the Forecasting Power of Statistical Models for Intercity Rail Passenger Flows in Turkey
dc.typeMakale
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