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Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Türkiye: An ARDL Analysis of Macro-Institutional Drivers
(Okur Yazar Derneği, 2025-12) Şengül, Serkan; Karahan Dursun, Pınar; 355807; 414023
This study examines the determinants of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in Türkiye over the period 1991–2022 using the ARDL approach. The analysis in-corporates agricultural credit, agricultural CO₂ emissions, human capital (average years of schooling), urbanization, and agricultural value added as explanatory variables. The Bounds test confirms the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The long-run ARDL model results show that agricultural credit and urbanization have negative effects on TFP, while human capital and agricultural value added contribute pos-itively. These signs are also confirmed by the short-run ARDL model. The empirical re-sults indicate that agricultural CO₂ emissions are insignificant in the long run but exert a negative short-run effect, reflecting temporary stress and inefficiencies. Overall, the study provides important policy insights, emphasizing the need for financial reforms, human capital development, rural revitalization, value-chain strengthening, and climate-smart practices to sustain agricultural productivity growth.