Spatial analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of crime: Evidence from regions of Türkiye

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dc.authorid0000-0001-9891-9477
dc.contributor.authorŞengül, Serkan
dc.contributor.authorCanbay, Şerif
dc.contributor.authorid355807
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-22T06:40:43Z
dc.date.available2025-09-22T06:40:43Z
dc.date.issued2025-09
dc.departmentFakülteler, Sanat ve Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi, Ekonomi ve Finans Bölümü
dc.descriptionSocial Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the macroeconomic and spatial determinants of crime rates in Türkiye by employing spatial panel data models. Using annual data from 12 NUTS-1 regions over the period 2009–2022, the analysis examines the effects of unemployment rate, income inequality (Gini coefficient), inflation rate, per capita income (GDP), public education expenditures, and urbanization on crime rates. Recognizing the spatial dependence structure of regional data, spatial error models are preferred over classical panel estimators. In addition to total crime, the study disaggregates crime data into two major categories—assault and theft—to assess the robustness of results and explore type-specific dynamics. The findings reveal that income inequality, per capita income, and inflation have positive and statistically significant effects on crime rates across all models. While public education expenditures do not exhibit a significant direct effect, their spatially lagged values show a negative and significant relationship with both total and disaggregated crime categories. The urbanization variable is found to reduce theft rates, although its effect on assault is weaker and not consistently significant. The unemployment rate does not appear to be a significant determinant in most specifications. These results highlight the importance of spatially informed, region-specific crime prevention strategies. In particular, the findings emphasize the relevance of interregional spillover effects of education policy and the differentiated impact of urbanization on distinct types of crime. The study contributes to the literature by offering both empirical and methodological advancements through the use of disaggregated crime data and spatial econometric techniques.
dc.identifier.citationŞengül, S. & Canbay, Ş. (2025). Spatial analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of crime: Evidence from regions of Türkiye. Economic Systems, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101350
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101350
dc.identifier.endpage12
dc.identifier.issn0939-3625
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.mudanya.edu.tr/handle/20.500.14362/351
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.institutionauthorŞengül, Serkan
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.journalEconomic Systems
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale- Uluslararası- Hakemli Dergi- Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectcrime rates
dc.subjectspatial
dc.subjectgini ratio
dc.subjectunemployment
dc.subjectTürkiye
dc.titleSpatial analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of crime: Evidence from regions of Türkiye
dc.typeMakale
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